The end of the year is traditionally the time for reviews and forecasts. December 2014 was no exception. What did we expect a year ago? CoinFox gathered some of the predictions for 2015 and analysed whether they came true.
First of all, we saw, as usual, numerous predictions about the price. Some of them were optimistic, promising significant rise. One popular expression with regards to bitcoin price at that time was “to the moon”. For instance, Brian Armstrong, co-founder and CEO of Coinbase, even named the amount of $4,000 as possible bitcoin price for 2015. Another positive prediction, $1500, was given by Adam Draper.
However, critics painted a more negative picture citing the fall of bitcoin price in 2014. The digital currency lost 70% from the high of 2013. The failure of the largest Bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox in February 2014 demonstrated beyond a shadow of any doubt that the appearances of professional and safe service in the Bitcoin world were illusory. The suggestion was that the price was going to fall in 2015. In fact, many were predicting the end of bitcoin.
So what did actually happen over the year? The end of bitcoin did not come. Bitcoin price was stable for the most of the year balancing under $300. However, the sudden rise of bitcoin that started in the end of October took bitcoin, not to the moon but at least to the year's maximum, might be the beginning of a new ascent.
A more accurate analysis of bitcoin economy dynamics up to 2015 suggested that the decrease in price in the previous year was only a start of a big development in a variety of aspects. In particular, 2015 was predicted to be the year of virtual currency-specific regulation on the state level. But did it happen? Yes, more or less. We have seen this year major governments demonstrating interest in cryptocurrencies on an unprecedented level. The US, Great Britain, European Union, and Australia all issued important documents considering the regulation of digital currencies. Russian government has been making sensational, and inconsistent, statements about bitcoin, including the new legislative proposal seeking to impose penalties of up to 4 years in jail for operations with the cryptocurrency, whereas the Central Bank Governor spoke in favour of bitcoin. Among countries that got interested in bitcoin for the first time on a national scale in 2015 are Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. The BitLicense was introduced in New York for the first time taking bitcoin regulation to the state level.
Another considerable trend in the news a year ago was bitcoin killer apps. Everyone was crazy about finding a mainstream applications and every new app was discussed and assessed with this criterion in mind. Forbes included the appearance of a killer app that would take the blockchain technology mainstream in its forecast for bitcoin in 2015. Impatient expectations for release of a killer app, however, gradually faded out over 2015. People now seem to be more reserved and realistic about remittances and other services that have potential to increase bitcoin adoption.
Although the bitcoin killer app did not emerge in 2015 we have seen the growth of merchant adoption, transmittance and payment methods, including the spread of digital currency for underbanked population in emerging economies.
A lot of excitement at the end of 2014 and beginning of 2015 was due to the bitcoin exchange-traded fund Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust. In October 2014, NYSDFS superintendent Lawsky mentioned some well-funded institutional exchanges to be launched in early 2015 in NYC under current banking regulations. In reality, the Winklevoss brothers' ETF, despite the claims, did not become the sensation or the killer app of 2015. The ETF did not feature in the news much and the Winklevoss continued to feed the public with promises, this time announcing the launch of Gemini bitcoin exchange which finally opened in October.
One prediction that definitely came out true was made by Eddy Travia, Chief Start-up Officer at Seedcoin, who said that 2015 would be the year of integration of blockchain technology by financial institutions and corporations. Indeed, this year we have seen the explosion of banks' interest in research and application of the blockchain technology within the banking industry. The R3 global consortium united 30 leading bank institutions worldwide to develop common standards and applications of the blockchain technology for the international fintech community. Many central banks expressed their views on bitcoin and blockchain and the majority revealed careful but positive attitude towards the innovative technologies.
One general assumption about bitcoin proved to be true in 2015 was made by Perianne Boring, founder and president of Chamber of Digital Commerce:
“I believe many Bitcoin skeptics, including some players on Wall Street, will begin to see Bitcoin as an opportunity, opposed to a threat.”
Sonya Belova
